ROME (World Report Studio News) - The birthrate in Italy has reached historic lows, with only 7 births per 1,000 people in 2021 according to the World Bank. This is down 30 percent from its rate in 2010, which has seen consistent year-over-year declines ever since. Consequently the fertility rate has dropped from 1.5 births per woman to 1.3 during the same period of time, far below the replacement rate of 2.1 births per woman. The Italian Institute for Statistics (ISTAT) reported 399,431 births in 2021, which is the lowest recorded stat since the country was unified in 1861. 

 

In contrast, the World Bank recorded an increase in the death rate during this same period time, with 10 deaths per 1,000 people in 2010, rising roughly 20 percent by 2021.

 

Rather surprisingly, the most recent population estimates for 2022 at 58.9 million persons is less than 1 percent or 420,000 persons lower than that in 2010. In fact by, according to the most recent population projected provided by Eurostat, Italy's population is anticipated to be 57.5 million by 2050, a drop of less than 2.4 percent. However, ISTAT projects a gloomier out look, with a projected population of 54.2 by 2050, significantly lower than Eurostat estimates. Population projects so far out into the future are difficult to accurately estimate, but the overall consensus is that Italy will see some level of population decline heading into the future.

 

If the population growth indicators previously described have dropped so significantly, why isn't a more dramatic drop in Italy's population observed? 

 

Population projections in Italy given a boost as immigration and life expectancy continue to rise

Since the 1990s the European Union has seen several waves of migrations and refugees from across the Middle East, Africa, and Eastern Europe following several major catalysts, including the fall of the Berlin Wall and the Arab Spring. The country has also seen a large immigrant population from China as both countries strengthen economic ties. This has lead Italy to record a net migration of nearly 4.1 million during the 2010 to 2021 period, resulting in the ISTAT calculating that nearly 9 percent of the total population is foreign born or a 5.2 million persons. For contrast, publicly available data estimate that the immigrant population in Italy was only 2.4 percent in 2022, a quarter of the current levels. 

 

These figures do not include naturalized foreign-born citizens or illegal immigrants, which are difficult to calculate but are estimated to be anywhere from 240,000 to 670,000 persons.

 

At the moment, the largest share of immigrants in the country as of 2021 originate from Romania, comprising approximately 38 percent of all immigrants. This is followed by Morocco, Albania, Germany, Ukraine, and China which combined constituent 30% of all immigrants in the country. Contrary to current perception of migrants in Europe, only 23% of immigrants in Italy originate from either North, Central, or Sub-Saharan Africa, although they do comprise a majority of the illegal immigrants.

 

Rising life expectancy figures have also played a substantial role in maintaining population levels in Italian society. Average life expectancy for Italians had reached a historic high of 83 years in 2019, only dropping as a result on the COVID-19 pandemic. This puts it amongst the 15-highest globally, inline with commonly perceptive healthier nations such as Japan, Singapore, and Sweden. With this trend largely expected to continue, the decline in Italian population will at least marginally slow down.

 

Will Italian society survive?

Even in the best case scenarios, Italy is expected to experience population declines to some degree. The ramifications of such a scenario are yet to be fully determined, but its the first signs of its effect on the Italian economy have already begun to show. Since the European Debt Crisis in 2009, the GDP in the country has yet to fully recover and has stagnated ever since. As the labor pool continues to diminish, the countries output will most likely continue to simultaneously fall.

 

Compounding this problem is the countries ballooning pensions bill, which is currently the highest in the 38-country Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD). According to a 2020 report by Eurostat, Italy spends just under 17.6% of its GDP on its public pension. This is more than double the 7.7% recorded within the rest of the OECD.

 

As births continue to decline and average life expectancy increase, there is a concerningly large crowd of pensioners with not enough workers to support their spending. Data from the OECD shows people over the age of 65 make up nearly 40% of Italy’s population as of 2023. For comparison, the average is 30% amongst OECD member states. Despite several policy moves to increase the retirement age, it still remains amongst the lowest and most generous in the European Union, providing 90% of the pensioners average income of employees' according to the most recent treasury data.

 

In an effort to address the imbalance between pensioners and the working population, Lorenzo Codogno, former chief economist at Italy's Treasury and head of LC Macro Advisors, suggests Italy must consider raising the retirement age. Whether this will materialize is yet to be seen, as politicians are regularly pressured by its aging constituency to maintain its current levels.